Kateqoriya arxivləri: Syrian Civil War

Интервью Радио Свобода: Трамп решил показать зубы”. Сценарии американской операции в Сирии

Авианосец ВМФ США "Гарри Трумэн"
Авианосец ВМФ США “Гарри Трумэн”

В четверг Дональд Трамп написал в твиттере, что военная операция в Сирии в ответ на химическую атаку в городе Дума “может начаться очень скоро, либо совсем не скоро”. Накануне американский президент был более решителен, наказав России “готовиться” к ракетному удару по силам сирийского президента Башара Асада. Несмотря на эти противоречивые твиты, США и их союзники, судя по всему, продолжают готовиться к удару по Сирии. 

Чем вызвано промедление Трампа с началом атаки? Будут ли атакованы российские военные объекты в Сирии, если Асад разместит “под крылом” российских систем ПВО свою авиацию? И чем на самом деле готова ответить Москва на военную атаку США против сирийской армии? На эти вопросы в интервью Радио Свобода отвечает независимый эксперт по безопасности, автор книги “Сирия. 1946–2012” Фуад Шахбазов. Oxumağa davam et Интервью Радио Свобода: Трамп решил показать зубы”. Сценарии американской операции в Сирии

Q&A with AlJazeera: 5 things to know about the expected US strikes in Syria

The US carried out 59 Tomahawk missile strikes in Syria last year after a chemical gas attack it blamed on the Assad regime [US Navy/Handout/Reuters]
The US carried out 59 Tomahawk missile strikes in Syria last year after a chemical gas attack it blamed on the Assad regime [US Navy/Handout/Reuters]

What types of US missiles could be fired?

According to sources, the US deployed several carriers with cruise missiles in the Mediterranean and Red Seas,” said Fuad Shahbazov, a security and military expert based in Azerbaijan.

“Also possible attacks with fighter jets should be considered as the US has huge airbases in the Gulf countries,” he added.

The US will most likely strike the Syrian army’s command and control headquarters, as well as its chemical weapons storage, according to Shahbazov. Judging by the current location of US cruise missiles aboard its naval vessels, pro-Assad strongholds along the Mediterranean, in Latakia province, may face attacks from the sea, he said. Oxumağa davam et Q&A with AlJazeera: 5 things to know about the expected US strikes in Syria

What is Russia’s end game in Afrin?

Turkey considers the PYD and YPG "terrorist groups" [Turkish presidency/Yasin Bulbul/Handout]
Turkey considers the PYD and YPG “terrorist groups” [Turkish presidency/Yasin Bulbul/Handout]

Growing US-Kurdish ties and a possible change in Turkey’s position on Assad may be behind Moscow’s tacit support.

Turkey launched its air and ground operation against Kurdish fighters in the Syrian enclave of Afrin on Saturday, with Moscow turning a blind eye on the military offensive. Russian forces were withdrawn from the area just before the operation began and Turkish jets were allowed to use the Afrin airspace, controlled by the Syrian government and Russia.

The development comes at a time when relations between Turkey and Russia have been gradually getting closer in the context of the Syria conflict, whereas tensions have been rising between Ankara and Washington, which backs the Kurdish fighters in northern Syria. Oxumağa davam et What is Russia’s end game in Afrin?

Will the ‘Troika format’ of Astana talks bring peace to Syria?

Turkish Foreign Ministry Deputy Undersecretary Sedat Onal, left, and Kazakh Foreign Minister Kairat Abdrakhmanov shake hands, as Russia’s special envoy on Syria Alexander Lavrentiev and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Jaber Ansari, right, shake hands and UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura stand after the final statement following the talks on Syrian peace in Astana, Kazakhstan, Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2017. (Photo: AP)

On January 23, the next phase of peace talks started in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana. Syria’s government and opposition forces are to meet in Kazakh capital Astana for the first time since the fall of Aleppo.

Negotiations between the Syrian government delegation and rebel fighters, sponsored by Russia and Turkey – who have been backing different sides of the conflict – are expected to last three days. One of the most significant points of the talks is that this time Syrian opposition is represented mainly by the militant groups, which fight in Syria, not just by secular, and political forces. Nevertheless, uncertainty prevails over all aspects of the talks – from the attendant list to the agenda of the meeting.

The guarantors of the Astana talks – Turkey, Iran, and Russia are seemingly making efforts to show the effectiveness of “Troika” Oxumağa davam et Will the ‘Troika format’ of Astana talks bring peace to Syria?

The Fall of Aleppo: What Does it Mean for Assad’s Regime?

Syrian Civil Defense
Syrian Civil Defense

Until November 27th, the balance of power in the Syrian civil war was unclear as all involved parties had not shown any significant progress over the previous sixty-seven months. The situation is worse in the besieged city of Aleppo, which has been divided since 2012 into two main fronts – pro-Assad forces and rebellion groups. On November 27th, the last resistance point in eastern Aleppo fell following a ferocious ground assault and aerial bombardment of pro-Assad forces, who now control up to one-third of rebel-held east Aleppo.

Eastern Aleppo with 250.000 trapped citizens suffers from lack of electricity, water supply, and medications. The city was almost reduced to rubble by endless air strikes by Russian backed pro-Assad forces.

Following the latest success, Assad’s army will probably advance further to seize Sahur, Haydariyya, and Sheikh Hodr districts in order to divide Eastern Aleppo into two parts, which will cut off the communication lines between eastern opposition forces and the main battle group deployed in Bab-al-Nayrab. The army and its allies claim to have taken full controlof the Jabal Badro and Baadeen districts on Sunday, a day after capturing Hanano, a neighboring residential district. Thus, the recapture of Aleppo by government troops is only a matter of time. Oxumağa davam et The Fall of Aleppo: What Does it Mean for Assad’s Regime?

What is preventing Kurdish independence?

jerusalem-post-lite

The Kurdish enclaves both in Syria and Iraq have never been so close to independence as they now are. Although the issue is a priority for all Kurdish parties and factions, the possibility of the emergence of a unified Kurdish state is quite low, as relations between Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish authorities are complicated.

Iraqi Kurdistan nearly gained independence from Baghdad during the reign of Saddam Hussein. In the aftermath of Saddam’s ouster by the US, the Kurds, led by Masoud Barzani, became the only potent and organized force amid political and economic chaos in Iraq. The Erbil government has managed to establish workable state institutions, including an electoral system, institutions of local government and a military, the Peshmerga. The Kurds successfully carried out military operations against Islamic State in order to take control of oil-rich districts across Kirkuk, thus securing a solid economic basis. Moreover, the current constitution of Iraq, which guarantees a large degree of autonomy to Kurdistan, also considers the possibility of Kurdish independence.  Oxumağa davam et What is preventing Kurdish independence?

Endless crisis of Great powers in Syria

aleppo-syria-bombs-russia-rebels

Right aftermath, when Russia has deployed its S-300 and S-400 long-range missile systems in its naval base in Tartus, some concerns were raised as it may be seen as a new phase of US – Russian confrontation in the Middle East.  Defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that the purpose of the system was to guarantee the security of the base from the air. The move comes amid growing tension with the West.  This makes it first time Russia has deployed S-300 missile system outside its borders. Oxumağa davam et Endless crisis of Great powers in Syria