Despite all agreements about the future actions of organization, the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus are very doubtful about the successful future of Customs Union.
Nursultan Nazarbayev and Alexander Lukashenko directly specified to Vladimir Putin that Russia has to fulfill the obligations about elimination of restrictions in the mutual trade within the Customs Union. In reply the Russian leader declared readiness “to move” to elimination of restrictions, but thus expects a compromise from partners.
Astana and Minsk as if competed with each other in sharp estimates of actions of Moscow acting as the main initiator of transition to deeper step of integration – to the Eurasian Union. It should be noted that, the claims to mutual restrictions that prevent to progress to bilateral trade within the Customs Union stated even since the establishment of Eurasian Economic Co-operation (EvrAzes) in 2000.
Officially Moscow needs a common market that acts only by the charter, Astana accuses Russia in a creation of non-tariff barriers to the Kazakhstan production. Minsk in its turn demands from Kremlin, the elimination of the customs duties on the exportation of the oil products.
The statements which have sounded at the Minsk summit for membership in the Customs Union, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Syria, India and Vietnam with New Zealand, had to show uncontrollable thirst for the Eurasian integration in peak to the European Union and Ukraine which are preparing to sign the contract on association in November at the summit of East partnership in Vilnius.
Without Ukraine and its population over 45 million people, the Eurasian Union will strongly affected in cause of losing an important part of Europe. At the same time, the expansion of the Custom Union with regard to the above-named countries, can bring severe losses not only to Moscow that shows readiness to pay for integration. After it, Astana and Minsk also will be compelled to charge itself with the problems of these states; from the economic to territorial.
The partners from the Customs Union in a real are not ready to such succession of events. There was an austere for them a burden of the initial stage of construction of the Eurasian Union which endures obvious crisis of growth because of a mutual distrust of its participants.
The role of the Custom Union in the development of a crisis situation can be played the absence of common idea for the long-term association, and the haste of Moscow is to consolidate different-sized economy of Belarus and Kazakhstan under its beginning.
For the time being, the prime and only reason of establishment of Customs Union is to prevent European expansion (economic and military) to the depth of ex-Soviet satellite territories.
Fuad Shahbazov- Expert of Strategic Outlook