In the end of the past year, there was an event which can radically affect all subsequent course of Syrian conflict. After a provocation over involvement of the West into military operations became unsuccessful, Islamic opposition groups inside of the country had carried out new efforts in order to finish war. They rejected the support of Syrian National Coalition and Free Syrian Army and formed new Islamic Coalition with other thirty religious parties.
One of the main and central figures of new coalition is “Al-Qaeda” linked group – Jabhat-an-Nusra. The second biggest Islamic group which was a part of FSA in the past – Lewa-al-Tahvid and Lewa-al-Islam joined the coalition too. In “communiqué ? 1” of new Islamic alliance, it is reported: “Syrian National Coalition does not represent us and our aims, we are calling for all Muslims to unit around new Islamic Alliance. Future of Syria must be elucidated by those, who has shed blood in it is territory.”
According to the Washington Post, Islamic Coalition is scoping 75% of opposition forces (not 50% as it said J. Kerry, or 15% according to Jane’s Intelligence).
A few days before the creation of specified coalition, one of the most martial divisions of FSA – 11th division had joined the coalition which is still controlling Ar-Raqqa City and eastern province of the country. Due to this motive there was a military parade accompanied by defilement Christian churches. All icons were burned, and instead of the dumped crosses, they are set up “Al-Qaeda” banners. All parts of FSA which are controlling the districts of two largest cities of the country – Damascus and Aleppo joined structure of alliance of Islamists.
Practically besides of new coalition there are not any effective and serious combatant forces to oppose to the official Damascus, except more radical “Islamic State of Iraq and Syria” which is challenging of the palm of Jabhat-an-Nusra among the “Soldiers of Jihad”. On September 26, ISIS put forward the ultimatum to divisions of Free Syrian army being in a zone of activity with the requirement to lay down arms and to pass under its command.
The Second Revolution – The Role of the ISIS
Since the January of a new year, Syrian opposition has carried out anti-propaganda campaign against the ISIS. The last week, the clashes inside of Syria had escalated due to struggle ISIS against the Free Syrian Army militants. ISIS, which majority of militants are foreign jihadists from all over the world is claiming up to the dominant role in conflict. During the past month in conflict, militants of ISIS were distinguished by their cruelty against government soldiers and civil people.
ISIS inspired to it is reputation such hatred that ultra-conservative Islamists were declared the organization members “apostates”. The press service of FSA directly accused ISIS in being in connection with Assad’s regime.
The Islamic Front delivered ISIS the ultimatum and demanded to be cleaned from the territory of Syria.
ISIS exposed to a real danger for last weeks and began to evacuate its divisions from Syria. ISIS evacuated positions along border with Turkey –the control over border was the most important source of the income of jihadists. ISIS also is evacuated from provinces Idlib, Dana and from strategically important city of Atma near which heavy fighting proceeded for the last several days.
ISIS positions are taken by fighters from Jabhat an-Nusra and Akhrar as-Sham.
The Syrian activists report: “Fighters of ISIS are leaving the positions. They take away the weapon, including heavy artillery with themselves. Most likely, they move in the direction of Aleppo”.
“Geneva – 2”
There are few days to Geneva-2 Talks over Syrian conflict. The U.S State Secretary John Kerry determined to draw Iran’s officials into negotiation process. “He invites … the main ally Assad – to take part in the forthcoming peace talks … without recognition of that Assad has to leave the post” said John Bolton, a former US diplomat.
Professor of George Mason University Mark Katts has other opinion. “Someone likes it or not, – the analyst states, – but Iran is deeply involved in the Syrian affairs. – and until America and others aren’t ready to stop the military and economic aid which Tehran sends to Assad’s regime, the Syrian conflict can’t be resolved without cooperation with Iran.”
The Syrian situation – special, considers the Moscow political expert Vladimir Akhmedov. “In Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, – he said, – there were popular uprisings or even revolutions. But they finished. So long, as in Syria – without three years, is didn’t proceed anywhere”.
How did Syrian events begin on March 15, 2011? The people who dissatisfied with government policy demanded reforms, it were peace marches of a protest. They turned into the heavy clashes only in seven-eight months – as Bashar Assad’s regime used exclusively power methods”.
“Today struggle for democracy proceeds. Nevertheless, the new phenomenon is a war between Sunnites and Shiites. Today in Syria thousands of non-Syrians – Shiites and Sunnites are clashing.
Syria and Chemical Weapon
The International Organization for Prohibition of the Chemical Weapons declared the beginning of export of the chemical weapon from the territory of Syria: freights of the chemical weapon were taken out from two storages, delivered to Latakia port and entrained on the Danish ship.
The head of the joint mission of the UN and OPCW Sigrid Kaag reported that the ship which is accompanied by the military ships of Denmark, Norway and Syria, remains in the sea near Latakia, expecting deliveries of new parties of the chemical weapon. Because of military operations, bad weather conditions and technical problems made impossible the Syrian chemical weapon to be taken out from the country until December 31 as it was planned initially.
As declared during taken place on Tuesday January 7 in a briefing the press secretary of State Department Jen Psaki, the USA welcomes the beginning of export of the chemical weapon from Syria.
Meanwhile the preparation of peace conference on Syria (Geneva-2) planned for January 22, still proceeds. However the USA still objects to possible participation of Iran in conference. “They do not show readiness to play a positive role in conflict settlement in Syria”, – Jen Psaki noted.
Fuad Shahbazov, Analyst, Strategic Outlook